Scottish ‘R’ Number +
Less than two weeks after the return of schools in Scotland on Aug 11 the data (via travellingtabby) graphically illustrates that the average R number was in the range 0.8 to 1.2, ie about 1. It continued to rise, peaked a month back and is heading steadily down. The Greater Glasgow Hospital admissions and number of deaths shown above are also encouraging — showing a peak for the former and blunting for the latter. “Nicola Sturgeon said that there were encouraging signs that transmission was slowing in Scotland”. To emphasise the leading graph on travellingtabby shows new cases might have said to have peaked on October 26, if not before.
However, the first minister insisted “that case numbers and hospitalisation had to come down” & elaborately laid out her case at the Press Briefing. Essentially despite the numbers clearly moving in the right direction an alternative set of indicators, known only to the Cabinet might be used to order a National Lockdown. And the reason is in the final paragraph
Ms Sturgeon warned she may have to abandon her five-tier strategy and put the whole country into Level 4 — the highest level of restrictions close to full lockdown — if furlough cash was not guaranteed.
Never mind the economy/people’s health etc it’s all about the money