A week in the life of “R”
As told to Erica’s Dad
Thursday: Few realised that R is short for Reproduction Number, until Boris explained, with a Benny Hill smirk at his return Press Briefing. Halfway through his introduction the new father got a break as a video was used to explain the theoretical story of greater than one — bad, less than one — good. Co-presenter Professor Witty was asked what was an optimal practical value for the number. Cannily he did not want to give an exact answer (unlike Doctors who use such to break bad news), thereby leaving a hare (hair ?) for the Press to chase.
Friday: Tom Whipple, the The Times science editor, has a mate called Seth at the Imperial College. Unfortunately his message was “essentially its all about uncertainty”; we had had enough of that deciding when to go into Lockdown.
Saturday: “We need to get the R number down” Scottish First Minster
Sunday: “We need to get the R number doon” N. Sturgeon, Scottish FM
Tuesday:After the briefing a BBC reporter explained to another BBC reporter that really we are dealing with R(average) as in the R number varies across the country, and indeed in different settings. Some chap from Aberdeen wrote in and said that R(effective) was the important thing*, but the comment moderators held up the comment for a record 12 hours.
Wednesday:“While precision on the R number is difficult, it is likely to lie between 0.7 and 1.0, an average for all of Scotland. The R number for community transmission in Scotland is estimated to be below the R number in hospitals and care homes. This is a matter of critical concern.”
Day#45: Quentin Letts, on latest Briefing- “Sir Ian was new to my collection of Top Trump cards. He exuded a slightly distracted, untidy air. Old school. Bet he has a bulging leather briefcase. The camera shot did not reach low enough but he may well have been wearing a pair of suede shoes. When they make the film of the coronavirus crisis, Sir Ian will need to be played by Bill Nighy.”
(*)He introduced the term Prevalence: “If its 0.0001 then R will be 1.”
